Real Estate Investment: A New Regime for Your Wealth
Real estate investment: why the end of free money is reshaping returns, credit, and the role of property within overall wealth allocation.
Tag Macro-Financial Regimes
This tag gathers articles analysing the major structural economic configurations: persistent inflation, disinflation, stagflation or deflation. It focuses on transitions between regimes and the ruptures that redefine the investment environment. A macro-financial regime change durably alters the behaviour of assets, central banks and economic agents. It is not a one-off event but a shift in logic.
Inverted Yield Curve: Reading a Regime Signal Without Immediate Effect
The inverted yield curve operates as a regime signal, not a timing tool. Its lagged effects are constitutive of the indicator, not a flaw — and explain why intermediate phases are often the longest and most misread.
Inverted Yield Curve: Why a Slow Signal Still Works
The inverted yield curve does not promise a dated event. It describes a regime imbalance whose slowness is integral to its meaning, not evidence that it has failed.
Earnings Surprises and Financial Regime Shifts
Earnings surprises reveal far more than a quarterly miss. They are an early indicator of the shift from a tolerant environment to a more constrained financial regime, often well before any visible index correction.
High Rate Regimes and Structural Erosion of ETF Liquidity
ETF liquidity is often treated as a given. In a regime of sustainably high rates, capital costs and balance sheet constraints quietly reshape the architecture supporting that liquidity, well before any visible market dislocation emerges.
Why Regulation Reshapes Crypto Markets Without Erasing Them
Regulation does not eliminate crypto-assets but reshapes their structure, actors and market dynamics. An economic analysis of the durable transformation underway.
Inflation and Equities: Why Sector Dispersion Persists
Inflation does not affect all equities equally. Differentiated effects across sectors and margins explain a growing share of the dispersion observed within equity indices.
Bitcoin: why its volatility is falling (2011-2026)
Bitcoin’s volatility has compressed from the 2011 extremes toward a durably calmer regime — a gradual maturation that regulation accompanies, without having caused it. TL;DR Bitcoin's calmer regime traces to a decade of market maturation (deeper liquidity, larger capitalization) that…
NFCI Compressed in 2024-2026: Post-GFC Anomaly or New Regime?
May 2026: NFCI at −0.55, a compression rarely observed after a monetary tightening phase. Fed-to-financial-conditions transmission appears to operate differently than in previous cycles. TL;DR Two years into a rate-cutting cycle, with QT still running, the NFCI reads -0.55 in…
Term Premium Back in Positive Territory 2024-2026: Durable Regime or Passing Oscillation?
In August 2024, after eight consecutive years in negative territory, ACMTP10 moved durably above zero. The crossing is not statistical noise but the combined effect of three forces whose respective weight and durability the academic literature debates without resolution. TL;DR…