The DGS10 published daily by the Federal Reserve is not the yield of an identifiable Treasury bond but a statistical construction called Constant Maturity Treasury, readable only with its method. TL;DR Reconstructed each business day by cubic-spline interpolation, DGS10 gives…
DGS10, the Fed’s daily Constant Maturity series, is the nominal 10-year Treasury yield that anchors all long-term pricing in the U.S. economy: mortgages, corporate bonds, equity discount rates, fiscal sustainability. TL;DR DGS10, the Fed's daily 10-year Constant Maturity yield, anchors…
T10YIE measures what markets expect; CPI measures what has actually materialized. The gap between the two is not an anomaly to be corrected — it is a signal in its own right, whose reading requires distinguishing level, direction, and cycle…
Since late 2022, T10YIE has been trading in a narrow 2.2-2.4% corridor. Powell labels this zone well-anchored, yet it sits structurally above the Fed’s 2% target. Three competing readings illuminate this gap without resolving it. TL;DR T10YIE's stability near 2.28%…
On April 21, 2022, T10YIE hit 2.99% — the highest level since July 2008. The episode constitutes the live-fire test of the Fed’s reaction function and remains, four years later, the implicit reference for every breakeven reading. TL;DR The 2022…
The nominal 10-year Treasury yield is not an indivisible number: it decomposes into the TIPS real yield and T10YIE inflation expectations. This accounting identity is the key to the contemporary macro reading of the US Treasury market. TL;DR Of the…
Since the post-COVID inflation episode, T10YIE has become a direct input to the Fed’s reaction function rather than an indicator merely observed on the side. Understanding this integration clarifies the reading of every FOMC statement since 2022. TL;DR The Fed…
T10YIE is the FRED ticker for a daily subtraction between two Treasury yields. Understanding what that subtraction actually measures — and what it does not — is the prerequisite to any macro reading of the figure. TL;DR Bond arbitrage between…
T10YIE has become the reference measure of long-term market-implied inflation expectations. Yet it is the regime reading, not the absolute level, that makes it the central indicator for understanding current Federal Reserve policy. TL;DR Averaging 2.11% from 2003 to 2025…
In late 2025, HY OAS prints around 300 basis points — a level only observed across three short windows since 1997, never sustained for long. This compression coexists with four dynamics that, taken individually, would argue for a wider spread.…
