Crisis Hub: eleven crises read as macro regime shifts
The dynamic counterpart to the regime Atlas: eleven crises read not as isolated events, but as shifts from one macro regime to another.
The regime Atlas describes states; the Crisis Hub describes transitions. Each page answers a single question: through which channels did one regime become another, and what did the Eco3min indicators — growth, underlying inflation, financial conditions, dollar-funding signals — show during the shift? Eleven crises, from 1929 to 2022, classified by destination regime rather than by type of shock.
These readings are retrospective, for historical analysis. They constitute neither a projection nor an investment recommendation, and past performance does not prejudge future performance. The three-layer classification grid is described in the classification methodology.
The classification separates what the engine actually measured from what is reconstructed or framed editorially: each crisis carries a proof status. The resulting distribution is owned, not hidden. Most post-war U.S. crises land in the disinflationary meta-regime — not a sampling imbalance, but an empirical regularity that a classification by type of shock would mask. The eleven transitions are laid out chronologically in the crisis chronology that records which regime each transition produced.
● Measured / backtested — the engine ran over the period (after 2003, with the three inputs available), or the overlay rests on a real value compared with a documented threshold. ◐ Reconstructed or out-of-backtest — a state that is computable but predates the 2003 validation window, reconstructed from period series, or resting on a substituted indicator. ○ Editorial framework — a structural layer (layer 3) not computed by the engine: a long-run reading grid, not a monthly verdict.
Inflationary meta-regime
The I+ column of the grid: high underlying inflation, variable growth. Two crises sit here — an entry into the stagflationary cycle (1973) and a regional fracture that occurred within a measured U.S. inflationary regime (2022). The stable state is described in the Atlas of the inflationary regime.
Measured U.S. inflationary regime (G= I+). The gilt crisis remains a regional fracture in leverage — the LDI mechanism of pension funds — outside the engine’s measurement. UK inflation at 11% is contextual colour, not an engine output.
The LDI fractureThe entry into the stagflationary cycle: weak growth and high inflation (G− I+). The inflation dimension is reconstructed via the CPI, the Trimmed Mean PCE only beginning in 1977; a period that predates the backtest window. The exit mirror is the Volcker shock.
Entry into stagflationDisinflationary meta-regime
The I− column of the grid, where most post-war U.S. crises land. Five distinct trajectories sit here: transitory recession (2008, 2020, 2000-02), durable deflation (1929), forced exit from the stagflationary cycle (Volcker). The stable state is described in the Atlas of the disinflationary regime.
Disinflationary slowdown (G− I=) under acute financial stress, paired with a shortage of dollar funding. The yield curve inverts as early as January 2006, nearly two years before the recession dated by the NBER.
From subprime to LehmanDisinflationary slowdown (G− I=), but a neutral overlay: the response was so fast that the NFCI reached the +0.30 threshold without holding it — the overlay was grazed, never installed. The distinctive point is this absence of an overlay shift.
The shock without a credit freezeThe only episode to shift durably into a disinflationary contraction (G− I−), not a mere slowdown: deflation sets in. A destination reconstructed from period series — no engine input exists before 1967.
From bubble to deflationThe exit from the stagflationary cycle: the forced disinflation and the 1981-82 recession bring inflation back toward the disinflationary column. A computable state, but outside the backtest window. The entry mirror is the 1973 oil shock.
Forced disinflationThe same destination as 2008 — a disinflationary slowdown — but a silent layer 2: the NASDAQ loses nearly 78% while financial conditions stay below their average. A period that predates the 2003 backtest window.
The crash without a credit crisisDollar Shortage
The layer-2 overlay: demand for dollars as a funding and haven currency overwhelms supply. A measured signal for episodes after 2006, reconstructed for the older ones. Three crises, including the eurozone, paired with a structural framework of fiscal dominance. The state is described in the Atlas of the Dollar Shortage.
A measured overlay, but on only one of the three signals: the broad dollar crossed its threshold in the second half of 2011 (reopening of the Fed’s swap lines), without transmission to U.S. financial conditions. The measured signature was monetary and offshore, not European.
The offshore dollar shortageA shortage of dollars strikes the emerging economies — not a U.S. cyclical shift, the United States remaining in expansion. Overlay signals reconstructed: the broad dollar is substituted before 2006, the high-yield spread reconstructed.
The currency contagionA sovereign default and a highly leveraged fund (LTCM) carry the contagion into the heart of the developed world. At the October 1998 peak, U.S. financial conditions top out at +0.02: the crisis was global and leveraged, not American.
The default and LTCMSecular stagnation
A layer-3 structural framework: durably low growth and inflation, conventional monetary levers blunted. Not computed by the engine — a reading grid, not a monthly verdict. One crisis, treated phase by phase. The framework is described in the Atlas of secular stagnation.
After the bursting of a twin equity and property bubble, a durable balance-sheet recession and deflation. The policy rate falls to zero in 1999 and quantitative easing follows in 2001 without breaking the stagnation. The engine does not classify the Japanese economy: a reading framework, not computed.
The balance-sheet recessionFor the current macro regime and the regime map, see the regime dashboard; the three-layer classification grid is detailed in the methodology. Where the Atlas fixes the states, the Crisis Hub keeps the record of the paths that lead to them.
Last updated — 2 June 2026
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