Macroeconomic Barometer: October 2026
Archived edition, kept unchanged. For the latest readings, see the current macroeconomic barometer.
Data as of October 1, 2026 · Updated October 30, 2026
Short answer, as of October 30, 2026
None of the three US recession gauges tracked here has reached its threshold. The real-time Sahm rule stands at 0.00 for September. The Fed and the ECB left their rates unchanged on October 28 and 29, US GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, and PCE inflation rose to 3.6% in September.
- Recession signals: the real-time Sahm rule reads 0.00 for September, after −0.07 in August (trigger 0.50), the SOS indicator −0.004 for the week ending October 17 (trigger 0.20), and the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stands at +0.37 point on October 29. Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, after 2.2% in the second (BEA, advance estimate, October 29). Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (BLS, October 2). Euro area GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter (Eurostat, flash estimate, October 30).
- Inflation: US CPI up 3.7% year over year in September, from 3.4% in August, and core CPI 2.6%, from 2.4% (BLS, October 14). The energy index rose 20.4% over the year. PCE price index 3.6%, core 3.1% in September, from 3.4% and 3.0% in August (BEA, October 29). Euro area HICP confirmed at 3.8% in September, from 3.2% in August, core 2.5% (Eurostat, October 16).
- Central banks: the FOMC held its target range at 3.75–4.00% on October 28, by a 10–2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. The ECB kept its deposit facility rate at 2.50% on October 29. Both rates have stood at these levels since September 16. Next decisions: FOMC December 9, ECB December 17.
- Financial conditions: the Chicago Fed NFCI stands at −0.487 for the week ending October 23, still looser than its historical average, after nine consecutive weekly increases on the current vintage. The Baa corporate spread over the 10-year Treasury is 1.43 points on October 28 (Moody’s via FRED). The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.31% on October 5, its highest since May 2002, then 5.05% on October 28 (FRED, DGS10).
| Indicator | Latest reading | October 1 edition | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm rule, real timeFRED SAHMREALTIME | 0.00September 2026 | −0.07 (August) | Trigger 0.50 below trigger |
| SOS indicatorEco3min calculation (IURSA) | −0.004week to 10/17 | −0.004 (week to 09/12) | Trigger 0.20 below trigger |
| 10Y − 2Y Treasury spreadFRED T10Y2Y | +0.37 pp10/29/2026 | +0.41 pp (09/30) | Inverted below 0 not inverted |
| Financial conditions, NFCIChicago Fed | −0.487week to 10/23 | −0.548 (week to 09/25, since revised to −0.518) | Historical average = 0 looser than average |
| Nonfarm payrollsBLS | +29,000September 2026 | +162,000 (August, first estimate) | August revised to +133,000, July to −10,000 |
| US CPI, year over yearBLS | 3.7%September, core 2.6% | 3.4% (August, core 2.4%) | Fed goal 2% (on PCE) above 2% |
| Euro area HICP, year over yearEurostat | 3.8%September, final; core 2.5% | 3.2% (August, final) | ECB target 2% above 2% |
| Fed funds target rangeFederal Reserve Board | 3.75–4.00%since 09/16/2026 | 3.75–4.00% | Unchanged on 10/28; next FOMC December 8–9 |
| ECB deposit facility rateECB | 2.50%since 09/16/2026 | 2.50% | Unchanged on 10/29; next meeting December 16–17 |
| US Treasury 10-yearU.S. Treasury · FRED DGS10 | 5.05%10/28/2026 | 5.29% (09/30) | −0.24 pp; 5.31% on 10/05, highest since 2002 |
| Baa corporate spread over 10-year TreasuryMoody’s via FRED BAA10Y | 1.43 pp10/28/2026 | 1.46 pp (09/29) | −0.03 pp |
| Brent, spot (FOB Europe)EIA via FRED | $123.1010/27/2026 | $113.96 (09/29) | October high $135.51 (10/02) |
| VIXCboe via FRED | 16.9110/28/2026 | 16.04 (09/29) | +0.87 |
By Eco3min Research. Readings retrieved at the source on October 30, 2026, for the third update of the month (October edition published October 1). The dashboard, the “Since October 1” section and the cycle signals are updated after the main releases of the month; the monthly detail further down (September highlights, month-end markets, macro data, framework) stays dated October 1. What changed since October 1 · Method, sources and revisions
Macro regime · United States
Updated November 2, 2026
Current regime
Transition / mixed signals
Neither growth nor underlying inflation has left its neutral zone: the grid points to none of the seven cyclical regimes.
Growth
On trend
Underlying inflation
Stable
Financial conditions
Neutral
NoteUnderlying inflation stable (2.3%), but an energy shock is under way: Brent +68% year on year (Sep 2026). Headline inflation exceeds the persistent inflation the classification measures.
Archived snapshot. This card was frozen when the page was archived, on November 3, 2026, and shows the classification as last updated during the October edition (November 2, 2026); the dashboard and method links point to the current classification. The live card is on the current barometer.
Since October 1, 2026: the releases of the month
Euro area unemployment, October 1. Eurostat puts the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of the euro area at 6.4% in August 2026, unchanged from July. The euro area has comprised 21 member states since January 1, 2026. Source: Eurostat, euro indicators release on unemployment, October 1, 2026.
US employment, October 2. The September jobs report shows nonfarm payrolls up 29,000. July was revised from +21,000 to −10,000 and August from +162,000 to +133,000, a combined downward revision of 60,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and average hourly earnings were up 3.0% over the year. The real-time Sahm rule (FRED, SAHMREALTIME) moved to 0.00 for September, from −0.07 for August. Source: BLS, The Employment Situation for September 2026, October 2, 2026.
Euro area inflation, flash estimate, October 2. Annual HICP inflation is estimated at 3.8% in September, from 3.2% in August. Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco stands at 2.5%, from 2.4%. By component: energy 18.8% (14.3% in August), services 3.2% (3.0%), food, alcohol and tobacco 1.4% (1.1%). Source: Eurostat, flash estimate of euro area inflation, October 2, 2026.
US inflation, October 14. The consumer price index rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending September, from 3.4% in August, and 0.6% over the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Excluding food and energy, it rose 2.6% over the year, from 2.4%, and 0.3% over the month. The energy index rose 20.4% over the year; according to the BLS, gasoline accounted for over half of the monthly increase in the all items index. Source: BLS, Consumer Price Index for September 2026, October 14, 2026.
Euro area inflation, final estimate, October 16. Eurostat confirms annual HICP inflation at 3.8% in September, from 3.2% in August, and 0.6% over the month. Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco is confirmed at 2.5%. Two components are revised from the flash estimate: energy to 18.9% (18.8% in the flash) and food, alcohol and tobacco to 1.3% (1.4%); services are unchanged at 3.2%. Source: Eurostat, HICP monthly data (prc_hicp_minr), updated October 16, 2026.
Fed, October 28. The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00%, by a 10–2 vote: Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred to raise it by a quarter point. The statement describes economic activity as expanding “at a strong pace” (“at a solid pace” in September) and inflation as still “elevated”. Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026.
US growth and PCE inflation, October 29. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, after 2.2% in the second, according to the advance estimate. Investment, consumer spending and government spending contributed, partly offset by a decrease in exports. The PCE price index rose 3.6% over the year in September and 0.5% over the month. Excluding food and energy, it rose 3.1% over the year and 0.3% over the month. Source: BEA, GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026, and Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, October 29, 2026.
ECB, October 29. The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged: 2.50% on the deposit facility, 2.65% on the main refinancing operations and 2.90% on the marginal lending facility. According to the statement, energy prices pose upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to growth, and financing conditions have tightened since the previous meeting. Source: ECB, monetary policy decisions, October 29, 2026.
Euro area growth and unemployment, October 30. According to the preliminary flash estimate, euro area GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter over the previous quarter, after 0.6% in the second, and 1.3% over the year. EU GDP grew 0.5% and 1.5% respectively. The euro area unemployment rate stands at 6.5% in September, and the August rate is revised from 6.4% to 6.5%. Source: Eurostat, quarterly national accounts (namq_10_gdp) and unemployment (une_rt_m), updated October 30, 2026.
Markets, September 30 to October 28. The 10-year Treasury yield went from 5.29% to 5.05%, with a high of 5.31% on October 5 (the highest since May 2002) and a low of 4.96% on October 22. The 2-year yield went from 4.88% to 4.67%, and the 10-year minus 2-year spread stood at +0.37 point on October 29. The Baa spread over the 10-year Treasury went from 1.47 to 1.43 points, and the VIX from 16.34 to 16.91. Brent spot (EIA, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB) went from $115.91 on September 30 to $135.51 on October 2, then $123.10 on October 27, the latest published value. WTI spot (Cushing) went from $97.18 to $103.37 over the same period. Source: FRED (DGS10, DGS2, T10Y2Y; BAA10Y, Moody’s; VIXCLS, Cboe); EIA spot prices (DCOILBRENTEU, DCOILWTICO).
Next releases: Q3 Employment Cost Index (BLS), October 30 · October jobs report (BLS), November 6 · October CPI (BLS), November 10 · October PCE (BEA), November 25 · FOMC, December 8–9 · ECB, December 16–17. The November edition, with data as of November 1, replaces this page at the start of the month.
Cycle signals: institutional indicators, updated October 30, 2026
−0.49
avg. = 0NFCI: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
A composite of 105 variables (money markets, debt, equities, the banking system). A negative reading indicates financial conditions looser than the historical average since 1971. The index stands at −0.487 for the week ending October 23. On the current vintage (weekly readings are revised), it has risen for nine consecutive weeks, from −0.551 in the week ending August 21, while remaining below zero. The three sub-indices for the week ending October 23: risk −0.562, credit −0.022, leverage +0.199. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED (series NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE, week ending October 23, 2026).
0.00
threshold = 0.50Sahm rule: real-time recession indicator
Developed by Claudia Sahm (formerly at the Fed). It measures the gap between the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate and its low over the prior 12 months. The 0.50 threshold has historically coincided with the start of every recession since 1950. The real-time reading for September 2026 is 0.00, after −0.07 in August and −0.03 in July: the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September, from 4.1% in August. A reading of zero leaves the bar empty. Next release: November 6, 2026, with the October employment report. Source: FRED, series SAHMREALTIME.
−0.004
threshold = 0.20SOS: Scavette-O’Trakoun Sahm-style indicator (Eco3min calculation)
A weekly variant of the Sahm rule using the insured unemployment rate. Method published by O’Trakoun and Scavette in Economics Letters (2025), applied here by Eco3min: 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate minus its minimum over the previous 52 weeks. The underlying series is published in our Sahm-rule recession-indicator dataset. Recession threshold: 0.20. The indicator stands at −0.004 for the week ending October 17, below the threshold. Continuing claims stood at 1.701 million for the same week. Source: Eco3min calculation on the US Department of Labor IURSA series (FRED), data through the week ending October 17, and FRED, series CCSA.
These indicators are designed to detect recession and financial stress. They are not trading signals. The thresholds mentioned are historical benchmarks, not predictions. Values are subject to revision.
Monthly detail · September highlights, month-end markets and data as of October 1, 2026
Yield curve spread and the Sahm rule
US yield curve spread (10Y − 2Y) and the Sahm rule. A curve inversion (negative value) has historically preceded most US recessions. The curve is not inverted: the slope stands at +0.41 pp on September 30, its August 31 level, after a low of +0.20 pp on September 21. The Sahm rule triggers at the 0.50 threshold; the chart plots the current-vintage series, at −0.07 for August. Data: FRED (T10Y2Y, SAHMCURRENT).
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics
Financial conditions: NFCI
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index and its three sub-indices (risk, credit, leverage). A composite of 105 variables spanning money markets, debt, equities and the banking system. A positive value = historically tighter conditions. As of September 25, 2026: NFCI −0.548, risk −0.629, credit −0.061, leverage +0.084. Data: FRED (NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
Factual highlights: September 2026
Fed: a quarter-point increase, the first since July 2023. On September 16 the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, by a 12–0 vote. The statement says that “economic activity is expanding at a solid pace”, that “inflation remains elevated”, and that the decision “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal”. The meeting was accompanied by a Summary of Economic Projections. The effective federal funds rate has stood at 3.88% since September 17. Source: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026; FRED (DFEDTARU, DFF).
ECB: three key rates raised by 25 basis points. On September 10 the Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility to 2.90%, effective September 16. The press release states that “the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period”. The staff baseline puts headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, inflation excluding energy and food at 2.5%, 2.6% and 2.3%, and growth at 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5%. On September 24 the ECB announced that Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel will step down on 3 January 2027 to join the IMF. Source: ECB, monetary policy decisions, September 10, 2026; ECB press release, September 24, 2026.
Inflation: above 3% on both sides, PCE revised down. US CPI for August (released September 11) rose 0.4% on the month in seasonally adjusted terms and 3.4% over twelve months, the same pace as in July. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.4% over the year (from 2.5%). Energy rose 2.1% on the month and 16.3% over the year; shelter is up 3.0% over the year. On September 30 the BEA put the August PCE price index at 3.4% year over year and the core measure at 3.0%, with monthly gains of 0.3% and 0.2%. The release incorporates the annual update of the national accounts, with revisions back to January 2021: the July readings now stand at 3.4% and 3.0%, against 3.7% and 3.3% as first published on August 28. The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE stands at 2.19% for August (2.28% in July). In the euro area, Eurostat’s final estimate (September 17) puts August HICP at 3.2%, a tenth below the 3.3% flash, against 2.9% in July; energy 14.3%, services 3.0%, and 2.4% excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. France: 2.6% in August, and 3.4% in Insee’s provisional September estimate (September 30). Source: BLS, Consumer Price Index, August 2026; BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Eurostat, euro indicators, September 17, 2026; Insee, Informations rapides, September 30, 2026.
Growth: the second quarter revised up on both sides. The BEA’s third estimate (September 30) puts US Q2 2026 GDP at +2.2% at an annual rate, revised up 0.7 point from the second estimate, mainly on investment, consumer spending and government spending; Q1 is revised to +2.5%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.6%, and real gross domestic income 2.6%. In the euro area, Eurostat’s September 7 estimate puts Q2 GDP at +0.6% quarter over quarter, against +0.4% in the August 14 flash, and +1.2% year over year; employment rose 0.1% on the quarter. Euro area unemployment stood at 6.4% in July; the August figure is due October 1. Source: BEA, GDP (Third Estimate), Q2 2026, September 30, 2026; Eurostat, GDP and employment, September 7, 2026; Eurostat, unemployment.
Employment: August payrolls up, and prior months revised up. The August jobs report (released September 4) shows nonfarm payrolls up 162,000. July, first reported at −23,000, was revised to +21,000, and June from +20,000 to +31,000, a combined upward revision of 55,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and the participation rate rose 0.2 point to 61.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents to $37.75, up 3.1% over the year. Weekly initial claims stood at 197,000 for the week ending September 19. Source: BLS, The Employment Situation, August 2026; U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED.
Commodities: Brent above $110, gold up in August. Dated Brent (EIA spot) went from $89.75 on August 28 to a September high of $130.80 on September 15, then $113.96 on September 29; dated WTI stood at $96.16 the same day. The EIA’s monthly Brent average for August is $91.08, up 34.2% on August 2025. Gold averaged $4,411 an ounce in August, against $4,073 in July, a rise of 8.3%; the September average is due in early October. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED (DCOILBRENTEU, DCOILWTICO, MCOILBRENTEU); World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), September 2, 2026.
Employment: weekly initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims (ICSA) are released every Thursday by the Department of Labor. The highest-frequency US macro indicator and the earliest warning signal for the labor market, ahead of the monthly jobs report (NFP). For the week ending September 19, 2026, ICSA = 197,000, after 198,000 and 207,000 in the two prior weeks and 204,000 in the week ending August 22. Data: FRED (ICSA).
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Equity market return, August 2026
| Market | August 2026 | July 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States Value-weighted market, USD | +2.85% | −0.28% | Kenneth R. French Data Library |
| Europe Value-weighted market, USD | +1.43% | +1.87% | Kenneth R. French Data Library |
| Japan Value-weighted market, USD | +2.46% | +1.96% | Kenneth R. French Data Library |
Value-weighted market portfolio returns in US dollars (Kenneth R. French Data Library). These are not national stock indices; one month behind the rest of the barometer. Total monthly return = market excess return (Mkt-RF) plus the one-month risk-free rate (RF), from the files built on August 2026 data, read on October 1, 2026. Past returns have no predictive value.
Rates, commodities, volatility
| Asset | Level | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury 2-year Sensitive to Fed expectations | 4.88% | 09/30/2026 | U.S. Treasury · FRED (DGS2) |
| US Treasury 10-year Benchmark sovereign yield | 5.29% | 09/30/2026 | U.S. Treasury · FRED (DGS10) |
| US Treasury 30-year Long-end benchmark | 5.64% | 09/30/2026 | U.S. Treasury · FRED (DGS30) |
| Spread 10Y − 2Y Curve slope | +0.41 pp | 09/30/2026 | FRED (T10Y2Y) |
| 30-year mortgage rate Freddie Mac | 7.03% | 09/24/2026 | Freddie Mac via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) |
| Baa corporate spread Baa yield minus 10-year Treasury | 1.46 pp | 09/29/2026 | Moody’s via FRED (BAA10Y) |
| Broad dollar index Nominal, Jan. 2006 = 100 | 120.33 | 09/25/2026 | Federal Reserve Board H.10 via FRED (DTWEXBGS) |
| VIX Cboe implied volatility index | 16.04 | 09/29/2026 | Cboe via FRED (VIXCLS) |
| Gold, monthly average USD/oz | $4,411 | August 2026 | World Bank, Pink Sheet |
| Brent (dated spot) Europe Brent FOB | $113.96 | 09/29/2026 | EIA via FRED (DCOILBRENTEU) |
| WTI (dated spot) Cushing, OK | $96.16 | 09/29/2026 | EIA via FRED (DCOILWTICO) |
Several lines are not dated September 30: the FRED series for the Baa spread, the VIX and oil had not been published for that day at the time of writing; the mortgage rate is a weekly series published on Thursdays; the broad dollar index is published weekly with a lag; and gold is a monthly average (World Bank Pink Sheet, September file due in early October). Treasury yields for September 30 are read from the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve. Over September, the 2-year and 10-year yields both rose 54 bps, leaving the 10Y−2Y slope at +0.41 pp, its August 31 level; the Baa spread narrowed 13 bps and the VIX rose 1.12 points. Indicative values, subject to revision.
Policy rates and bond yields
The Fed policy rate (Fed Funds), 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, and the 30-year mortgage rate. The transmission chain between monetary policy and the real economy. As of September 30, 2026: target range 3.75–4.00% since September 16, effective fed funds 3.88% (September 29), 2-year 4.88%, 10-year 5.29%, 30-year mortgage 7.03% (week ending September 24). Over September the 2-year and the 10-year yields both rose 54 bps. Data: FRED (FEDFUNDS, DGS2, DGS10, MORTGAGE30US); U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve for September 30.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US), via FRED
Credit spread: Baa vs 10-year Treasury
The gap between the yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds and the 10-year Treasury yield measures the premium investors require to hold mid-grade corporate credit rather than federal debt. As of September 29, 2026, it stood at 1.46 percentage points (146 bps), against 1.59 at the end of August. That is below 96.9% of trading days since 1986, a period over which the average is 2.26 points. Data: Moody’s via FRED (BAA10Y).
Source: Moody’s via FRED (BAA10Y)
Macroeconomic indicators: latest releases
United States
Euro area
Inflation and expectations
Market-implied inflation expectations: 10-year breakeven (T10YIE) at 2.36% on September 30 (the gap between nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year yields), 10-year real interest rate (DFII10) at 2.91% on September 29, and the 5Y5Y forward rate (T5YIFR) at 2.36% on September 30. The 5Y5Y forward is the Fed’s preferred gauge of long-term expectations anchoring; it rose 5 bps over the month, while the 10-year real rate rose 47 bps, from 2.44%: most of September’s rise in the nominal 10-year yield came through the real rate. Data: FRED.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (DFII10), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (T10YIE, T5YIFR), via FRED
Analytical framework: the month’s factual elements
The data available as of October 1 describe a configuration in which both central banks raised rates in September while activity data were revised up and the recession gauges stayed below their thresholds. Inflation remains above 3% in the United States and in the euro area, and long-term US yields rose sharply over the month.
On activity: the BEA’s third estimate lifts US Q2 2026 GDP to +2.2% at an annual rate, from +1.5% in the second estimate, and revises Q1 to +2.5%, as part of the annual update of the national accounts. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment, rose 4.6%. In the euro area, Eurostat’s September 7 estimate raises Q2 growth to +0.6% quarter over quarter, from +0.4% in the flash. The ECB’s staff projections were revised up for 2026 and 2027, a revision the press release attributes “mainly” to “the greater than expected resilience of the euro area economy”.
On employment: August payrolls rose 162,000, and the revisions added 55,000 jobs to June and July combined, the reverse of the previous month, when they had removed 103,000 from May and June. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and the participation rate rose to 61.6%. The real-time Sahm rule stays negative at −0.07, the SOS indicator at −0.004 against a 0.20 threshold, and weekly claims stood at 197,000 in the week ending September 19. The September report, on October 2, is the first after the Fed’s increase.
On inflation: US CPI holds at 3.4% year over year in August with core at 2.4%, the energy component running 16.3% above its year-ago level. The annual BEA update lowers the Fed’s preferred measure: the PCE price index stands at 3.4% in August and the core measure at 3.0%, July having been revised from 3.7% and 3.3% to 3.4% and 3.0%. The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE eases to 2.19%, and the 5Y5Y forward stands at 2.36%. In the euro area, final August HICP is 3.2% with energy at 14.3%; Insee’s provisional September HICP for France, at 3.4% against 2.6% in August, precedes the euro area flash estimate of October 2.
On central banks and markets: the Fed and the ECB each raised their policy rates by 25 basis points in September, the Fed by a unanimous vote and for the first time since July 2023. Over the month the 10-year Treasury yield rose 54 bps to 5.29%; the 10-year real rate rose 47 bps to 2.91% and the 10-year breakeven 5 bps to 2.36%, while the 10Y−2Y slope ended September at +0.41 pp, its August 31 level, after touching +0.20 pp on September 21. Credit spreads did not follow: the Baa spread narrowed to 1.46 points. The NFCI rose for three consecutive weeks to −0.548, still looser than its historical average, and net liquidity fell about $9B to roughly $5,770B as the Treasury account rose to $977B. Dated Brent stood at $113.96 on September 29, after a high of $130.80 on September 15.
Key items to watch: October–November 2026 calendar
The October 2, 14, 16, 28 and 29 releases listed below, and Eurostat’s October 30 releases, have since been published (this update predates the BLS Employment Cost Index of October 30, 8:30 a.m. ET): their results are in the Since October 1 section above.
Net liquidity: Fed balance sheet, TGA, reverse repo
Net liquidity equals total Federal Reserve assets (WALCL) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance and reverse repo operations (RRP). As of September 23, 2026, total assets come in at $6,748B, the TGA at $977B and the RRP near zero ($0.5B), for net liquidity of about $5,770B, down roughly $9B from August 26. The balance sheet grew by about $17B over the period while the Treasury account rose by about $26B. The RRP rose above $11B on September 29 and 30, at quarter-end ($11.5B on September 30). Data: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD).
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (RRPONTSYD), via FRED
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Monetary policy Yield curve Liquidity & financial conditions Financial markets Commodities Macroeconomics & geopoliticsMethod, sources and revisions
Prepared by Eco3min Research, the editorial desk of eco3min.fr. Values on this page are retrieved from the institutions that publish them (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve Board, ECB, Eurostat, Insee, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, EIA, World Bank, Kenneth R. French Data Library) during the production of each edition, and are shown with their series code and date. The production rule excludes estimates and figures carried over from memory: a release not yet published is labelled as such. Since October 1, 2026, the barometer publishes no data distributed under licence: equity markets are covered by the market returns of the Kenneth R. French Data Library, credit by Moody’s Baa spread over the 10-year Treasury, and gold by the World Bank monthly average.
Schedule: a full edition with data as of the first day of each month; the dashboard and the “Since” section are updated after the main releases of the month (jobs report, CPI, central bank decisions). The macro regime card follows the published classification methodology. Previous editions are archived unchanged, with links at the bottom of this page.
- October 30, 2026: third update of the month. Short answer, dashboard, cycle signals and the “Since October 1” section updated with the FOMC decision (October 28), the Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE (BEA, October 29), the ECB decision (October 29), and the euro area Q3 GDP flash estimate and September unemployment (Eurostat, October 30). NFCI for the week ending October 23, SOS through the week ending October 17, market readings to October 27, 28 and 29. The monthly detail stays dated October 1.
- October 16, 2026: second update of the month. Short answer, dashboard, cycle signals and the “Since October 1” section updated with the September CPI (BLS, October 14) and the final September euro area HICP (Eurostat, October 16), which revises energy and food, alcohol and tobacco; NFCI for the week ending October 9, SOS through the week ending October 3, market readings to October 14 and 15. The monthly detail stays dated October 1.
- October 10, 2026: first update of the month. Short answer, dashboard, cycle signals and the “Since October 1” section updated with August euro area unemployment (Eurostat, October 1), the September jobs report (BLS, October 2) and the September euro area HICP flash estimate (Eurostat, October 2); market readings to October 8 and 9. The monthly detail stays dated October 1.
- October 1, 2026: October edition published, data as of October 1, 2026. Equity index levels replaced by Kenneth R. French market returns, the high-yield spread by the Baa spread (BAA10Y), gold by the World Bank monthly average; chart source lines completed with the attribution of each series.
- September 25, 2026: page reorganised in two layers, with the short answer, the dashboard and the “Since” section at the top, updated during the month.
This barometer is published monthly by eco3min.fr. It compiles data from public institutional sources (FRED, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, Eurostat, Insee, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, EIA, World Bank, Kenneth R. French Data Library). The cycle and financial-conditions indicators are presented with their documented definitions and historical thresholds, with no predictive interpretation.
Disclaimer. The data, charts and indicators presented on this page are provided for strictly informational and educational purposes. They are drawn from public data (FRED, BLS, BEA, ECB, Eurostat, Chicago Fed) and may be subject to delays, revisions or errors. They do not constitute investment advice, personalised recommendations, a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a predictive analysis of the economic cycle. eco3min.fr is not an authorised financial institution and does not provide investment advisory services within the meaning of applicable regulations (MiFID II; Articles L.541-1 et seq. of the French Monetary and Financial Code). Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the investor, who is encouraged to consult an authorised professional. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The market values cited are indicative and may differ from real-time prices.
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Last updated — 3 November 2026
Disclaimer – Financial and Legal Information: The analyses, commentary, and content published on eco3min.fr are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions involve risk and are the sole responsibility of the reader. Data, charts and calculated series are provided as is and may contain errors or lag behind their source: check any figure against the primary source cited before relying on it. Content describing laws, regulations or contracts reflects the law as of its publication date and does not constitute legal or tax advice; applying it to a specific situation requires a qualified legal or tax professional.