Every ECB rate decision since 1999

Ten cycles, and the question of speed

A cycle starts at the first move that reverses the direction of the previous one and ends at the last move in that direction; pauses inside it are counted, pauses after the last move belong to the hold. Ten cycles since 1999, five hiking and five cutting. The current cycle, opened on 11 June 2026, is the tenth.

The chart below aligns the ten cycles on the day of their first decision and plots the cumulative change in the reference rate. The selected cycle is in terracotta, the others in grey; a filled marker is a change, a hollow marker a meeting without one. The 2022–23 cycle climbs 450 basis points in 420 days without a single pause, and no other cycle comes close; the 2008–09 cycle drops 325 points in 211 days; the 2011–19 cycle takes 2,870 days to fall 175 points, with 66 unchanged meetings along the way.

What the series shows

First, the asymmetry of the holds. An ECB peak lasts months, a trough lasts years. The 4.00% deposit rate held for 266 days; the −0.50% rate held for 1,043 days, and the −0.40% rate before it for 1,281 days, the longest pause in the register.

Second, the speed of the reversals after a hike. The July 2008 and July 2011 hikes were each followed by a cut within four months: 97 and 119 days. The 2026 hikes are different in their timing: they follow a complete cutting cycle of 200 points, finished on 5 June 2025, and come 371 days later. In the register only the 1999 reversal was shorter, 210 days between the April cut and the November hike.

Third, the way decisions are reached. The account, published since 2015, gives no roll call; it describes the agreement in a codified vocabulary, from “all members” to “a majority”. Of the 22 rate changes documented since 2015, 7 are unanimous, 8 gather “almost all members”, 6 a “large majority” or a “consensus”, and one only, the September 2023 hike, a “solid majority” described as a close call. Before 2015, only the President’s words at the press conference are on record; the column reads n.d. wherever he did not say. The four presidencies also show in the table: 77 meetings and zero hikes for Mario Draghi, 12 hikes and 8 cuts for Christine Lagarde in 56 meetings, the largest net balance in the register, +300 bp.

What this does not prove

The peak-trough asymmetry is not an ECB decision rule; it is the outcome of twenty-seven years that contain two financial crises, a pandemic and two energy shocks. Four peaks are a sample; the length of the fifth, the one being built in 2026, is not inferred from the first four. Comparing cycles on an axis of days says nothing about their starting point, and the 2022 cycle started from −0.50% while the 2026 cycle started from 2.00%. The reference rate switches in June 2014: cumulative changes that straddle that date add refinancing points to deposit points, which is consistent for direction and size, not for level. The Bund column measures two closes around a meeting, not the effect of the decision: whatever was anticipated leaves no trace in it. Finally, the wording of the account is not a vote; “all members” and “consensus” do not compare across presidencies, whose drafting styles differ.

Method, and the register itself

Primary sources. The ECB’s official “Key ECB interest rates” table for the levels of the three rates and their effective dates, 69 rows; the 323 “Monetary policy decisions” press releases for the existence and date of each meeting, including those without a change; the accounts of the monetary policy meetings for the Governing Council column from January 2015, and the press conference transcripts before that; the ECB HICP series for inflation; the Bundesbank for the daily 10-year Bund yield (Svensson method, 10-year residual maturity). Retrieved 19 September 2026.

Rules. One row per meeting that published a decision; 22 December 1998 is row zero. Three unscheduled meetings: 17 September 2001, 8 October 2008 and 18 March 2020. The transitional corridor of 4 to 21 January 1999 is a technical measure decided on 22 December 1998 and is not counted as a decision. A change is attached to the last meeting before its effective date. The direction of a decision is that of the reference rate; if only another rate moves, the direction is that rate’s. A cycle is a run of moves in the same direction; a pause is a meeting without a change; a hold is measured from the last move of a cycle to the first move of the next. HICP is that of the month before the meeting, final value rather than flash estimate. The Governing Council wording is sorted into five categories from the sentence of the account that carries the rate decision, and that sentence is kept in the CSV.

What the register does not contain: decisions on asset purchases, targeted refinancing operations and forward guidance, except as notes; Council meetings without a decision press release; the vote before 2015 beyond an explicit statement by the President. A new meeting adds a row; its account, published four weeks later, completes the Governing Council column.

Questions about the register

How many times has the ECB changed its rates since 1999?

63 times between January 1999 and September 2026: 30 hikes and 33 cuts, over 323 monetary policy meetings. The other 260 meetings ended without a change.

What is the largest move decided at a single meeting?

75 basis points, three times: the cut of 4 December 2008, then the hikes of 8 September and 27 October 2022. The cut of 15 January 2009 lowered the main refinancing rate by 50 points but the deposit facility rate by 100, because the corridor was widened the same day.

What is the ECB’s longest hold?

1,281 days at a −0.40% deposit rate, between the cut of 10 March 2016 and the cut of 12 September 2019, that is 27 consecutive meetings without a change. The longest hold at a cycle trough, measured to the first hike, is 1,043 days at −0.50%, from September 2019 to July 2022.

Are ECB rate decisions unanimous?

The ECB does not publish a vote count. Since 2015 the account describes the agreement: of 22 documented rate changes, 7 are described as unanimous and 8 as gathering almost all members; the hike of 14 September 2023 is the only one described as a simple majority. Before 2015, only the President’s statement at the press conference fills the column.

What is the ECB’s latest rate decision?

10 September 2026: a 25 basis point hike, deposit facility rate at 2.50%, main refinancing rate at 2.65%, marginal lending rate at 2.90%, effective 16 September 2026. It is the second hike of the cycle opened on 11 June 2026, 371 days after the last cut of 5 June 2025.

Read next on the site: the next ECB meeting and the time of the decision, Fed vs ECB, two mandates compared, the ECB-Fed rate differential and EUR/USD, what separates policy rates, market rates and real rates, how expensive gas travels to an ECB decision, the deposit facility rate as a daily dataset and the ECB series in CSV. The wider frame is the central banks and monetary policy sub-pillar of the monetary regimes and rate cycles pillar.

Last updated — 19 September 2026