This tag covers liquidity conditions on a global scale: central bank balance-sheet policies (QE/QT), repo operations, the level of bank reserves and refinancing flows. Global liquidity acts as an ocean on which all assets float. Its expansion supports valuations; its contraction creates sometimes brutal tensions.
Crypto cycles post drawdowns two to four times deeper than equity markets. The asymmetry stems from market microstructure, not from a speculative temperament peculiar to the sector. Three mechanics stack to explain it: pervasive leverage, a programmed supply with no…
France’s Livret A rate follows a published formula: a half-yearly average of inflation excluding tobacco and a money-market rate, the €STR, rounded, with a floor. But that formula is only a proposal, and the government has departed from it repeatedly…
Artificial intelligence ETFs attract massive flows, but conceal risks that are often underestimated: high concentration on a few names, sensitivity to real rates and an amplifying effect of capital flows when sentiment turns.
Equity markets can rally on weak economic data when expectations of monetary easing or improving liquidity outweigh the direct impact on earnings. This forward-looking dynamic explains apparently paradoxical sessions.
ETFs increasingly shape the structure of equity markets. Mechanical flows reinforce large-cap concentration and amplify procyclical price dynamics, well beyond the framing of passive management as a neutral vehicle.
Liquidity flows can sustain equity markets without economic recovery. Passive flows, buybacks and central bank policy create autonomous market support, often disconnected from the underlying business cycle.
The central bank’s balance sheet is not an accounting byproduct of monetary policy but a standalone instrument that acts directly on the 10-year Treasury term premium, by removing or returning duration to the market. TL;DR The Fed balance sheet moves…
When the FOMC announces a target range, it does not directly steer the effective Federal Funds Rate: it sets two administered rates — IORB and ON RRP — that bound a corridor within which the market settles. TL;DR Two stress…
WALCL aggregates the size of the Fed balance sheet, not the liquidity available to markets. Three structural limits distort the signal: the TGA, the ON RRP, and the accounting value of MBS. Each introduces a gap between the WALCL level…
Since June 2022, WALCL has fallen from ~$8.97 to ~$6.8 trillion — a $2.2 trillion drawdown in three and a half years. The cap was modulated in May 2024; actual runoff oscillates between $35 and $50 billion monthly. The terminal…
