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Inflation

Inflation is a regime rather than a monthly print, and its persistence matters more than its level. Core or headline, imported through energy and the exchange rate, anchored or not in expectations: each component feeds wages, real rates and the real return on savings at its own pace. US CPI since 1913, breakevens, every second inflation wave since 1948 and every hyperinflation since 1795 put each new release in historical context.

153pieces
28in-depth analyses
29datasets
4quick reads

Where to start

Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.

01The basics Inflation Expectations: How They Form and Why They Matter Inflation expectations explained: the three formation models, the short-run vs long-run distinction, and why anchored long-term expectations saved 2022-2024 disinflation. AnalysisRead → 02The full mechanism T10YIE and 10-Year Inflation Expectations: How Markets Price Future Inflation T10YIE measures 10-year market-implied inflation expectations since 2003. In-depth analysisRead → 03The evidence Inflation Explained: Mechanisms, Measurement, History and Effects — The Complete Guide An analytical guide to inflation: definitions, the four official measures, causes, a century of historical episodes and effects on debtors, savers and assets. StudyRead →

Research and data

Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.

Dataset Real Wage Growth: US Average Hourly Earnings Minus CPI Inflation, Monthly Since 2007 Real wage growth, monthly since 2007: US average hourly earnings (all private employees) year over year minus CPI inflation. See the data → Dataset 2.57%Latest value · September 2026 CPILFESL: Core US CPI Inflation Excluding Food and Energy — Monthly Series Since 1957 See the data → StudyUS Inflation (1913–2026): A Complete CPI History and Purchasing Power Breakdown StudyThe Disinflationary Regime: Mechanisms, Indicators, and Historical Episodes

All analyses, by angle

Grouped by sub-topic rather than by date. Filter to get straight to the point.

Inflation Explained72

The sub-pillar →

Choosing investments in the light of the macro cycle8

The sub-pillar →

Monetary Transmission to Corporate Earnings8

The sub-pillar →

Crisis Hub7

The sub-pillar →

Commodities as Macroeconomic Regime Signals5

The sub-pillar →

Physical Commodity Markets5

The sub-pillar →

Other angles37

Quick reads

Comparisons and common misconceptions: the essentials in a few minutes.

ComparisonInflation vs rising prices: why they are not the same ComparisonNominal vs real wages: why a raise can still hurt ComparisonTIPS vs nominal Treasuries: what breakevens reveal MisconceptionsCommon mistakes about inflation

Related topics

The subjects that most often intersect with this topic in our analyses.

Monetary Transmission93 pieces Between a central bank decision and its effect on credit, jobs and prices, more than a year often goes by. 16 in common → Real Rates66 pieces An interest rate means little until it has been adjusted for inflation. 16 in common → Macro-Financial Regimes53 pieces A hedge that worked in one inflation regime can become the risk in the next. 10 in common → Energy & Oil64 pieces Oil only becomes a recession story once its cost claims a large enough share of the economy. 9 in common → Housing & Real Estate77 pieces Housing’s real cycle is a credit cycle: transaction volumes react to rates long before prices do. 9 in common → Economic Cycles92 pieces A slowdown is not a recession, and quarterly headlines rarely reveal which phase the economy is in. 8 in common →
This topic also exists in French.Inflation, 130 pieces →