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Housing & Real Estate

Housing’s real cycle is a credit cycle: transaction volumes react to rates long before prices do. Borrowing capacity, down payment, loan term and real rates set the ceiling on solvent demand, which is why rate cuts do not lift prices on schedule. The 30-year US mortgage rate since 1971, real Case-Shiller prices since 1987, a 54-year test of rates versus prices in affordability, REITs and rental yields are gathered here.

42pieces
8in-depth analyses
20datasets
3quick reads

Where to start

Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.

01The basics US Debt-to-Income Limits: How DTI and the Ability-to-Repay Rule Gate a Mortgage How debt-to-income limits and the ability-to-repay (QM) rule gate a US mortgage, and why the back-end ratio decides the loan size. AnalysisRead → 02The full mechanism US Mortgage Borrowing Capacity: How Rates Set the Ceiling Before Price How mortgage rates, DTI, LTV and loan term set your borrowing capacity in the US, and why the payment ceiling moves before any price does. In-depth analysisRead → 03The evidence Rates vs. Prices: Which Variable Has Driven US Housing Affordability More Since 1971? A 54-Year Dataset Key findings: 54 years of US housing affordability Since 1971, a 100 basis-point rise in the 30-year mortgage rate has the same monthly-payment impact as… StudyRead →

Research and data

Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.

Dataset MORTGAGE30US: US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Weekly Survey Since 1971 MORTGAGE30US weekly 30-year US fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. See the data → Dataset 719.87 index (real, CPI-deflated)Latest value · April 2026 Real US Home Price Index: FHFA House Prices Deflated by CPI, Quarterly Since 1975 See the data → StudyHow to invest in REITs: vehicles, metrics and the rate cycle StudyThe Fed cut rates by 100 bps in late 2024. Mortgage rates rose anyway.

All analyses, by angle

Grouped by sub-topic rather than by date. Filter to get straight to the point.

Rental Property Returns5

The sub-pillar →

The Real Estate Credit Cycle3

The sub-pillar →

Interest Rates and Real Estate Purchasing Power3

The sub-pillar →

Choosing investments in the light of the macro cycle3

The sub-pillar →

Other angles18

Quick reads

Comparisons and common misconceptions: the essentials in a few minutes.

ComparisonFixed vs adjustable mortgages: the rate-cycle tradeoff ComparisonREITs vs physical real estate: liquidity vs control ComparisonBuying vs renting: what the data shows

Related topics

The subjects that most often intersect with this topic in our analyses.

Inflation114 pieces Inflation is a regime rather than a monthly print, and its persistence matters more than its level. 7 in common → Monetary Transmission50 pieces Between a central bank decision and its effect on credit, jobs and prices, more than a year often goes by. 7 in common → Credit Cycles24 pieces Credit turns before the economy does, and it rarely turns gently. 3 in common → Yield Curve47 pieces The slope of the yield curve is the market’s compressed forecast for growth, inflation and central bank policy. 3 in common → Real Rates22 pieces An interest rate means little until it has been adjusted for inflation. 2 in common → Risk Premium & Valuation36 pieces An asset price is a numerical bet on growth, inflation and risk; valuation says which bet, not when it will fail. 2 in common →
This topic also exists in French.Immobilier et logement, 32 pieces →