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Dollar & Global Monetary System

The dollar does more than mirror the US economy: it sets financial conditions for everyone else. A rising dollar raises the burden of dollar debt in emerging markets, lifts commodity prices in local currency and tightens global liquidity; de-dollarization shows up far less in reserve flows than in the headlines. Every dollar bull and bear market since 1973, the broad trade-weighted index, the ECB-Fed differential behind EUR/USD and the yen carry trade are covered.

37pieces
13in-depth analyses
13datasets
4quick reads

Where to start

Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.

01The basics Yen Carry Trade: The Hidden Leverage Shaking Forex and Portfolios The yen carry trade in 2026: how the Fed-BoJ gap narrowed to 2.9 points, what the CFTC positioning reversal showed, and how past unwinds actually played out. AnalysisRead → 02The full mechanism Why the Euro Moves Against the Dollar: the ECB-Fed Differential and Euro-Specific Forces EUR/USD decomposes: the ECB-Fed policy differential to first order, euro-specific forces to second. In-depth analysisRead → 03The evidence The US Dollar at the Onset of Every Major Global Crisis Since 1973: A Standardized Historical Dataset Trade Weighted Dollar Index (DTWEXM / DTWEXBGS, scaled) with 18 major crisis episodes (1973–2023). StudyRead →

Research and data

Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.

Dataset 121.67Latest value · October 2026 DTWEXBGS: Daily Trade-Weighted Broad US Dollar Index from FRED (2006–2026) See the data → Dataset 157.47 JPY per USDLatest value · October 2026 USD/JPY Exchange Rate History: Yen per Dollar Since 1971 See the data → StudyThe Dollar Shortage Regime: Mechanisms, Indicators, and Historical Episodes StudyU.S. net investment income has fallen to near zero

All analyses, by angle

Grouped by sub-topic rather than by date. Filter to get straight to the point.

The U.S. Dollar as a Systemic Variable in the Global…4

The sub-pillar →

Foreign Exchange Markets and International Monetary Regimes4

The sub-pillar →

Other angles18

Quick reads

Comparisons and common misconceptions: the essentials in a few minutes.

ComparisonDollar cost averaging vs lump sum: what history shows ComparisonDollarization vs de-dollarization: the slow reshuffle ComparisonDollar vs gold: the reserve-asset tension ComparisonStablecoins vs CBDCs: private vs public digital money

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The subjects that most often intersect with this topic in our analyses.

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This topic also exists in French.Dollar et système monétaire mondial, 21 pieces →