This tag examines the structuring role of the dollar in the international financial system. Dominant reserve currency, invoicing currency of global trade and safe-haven asset, the dollar shapes global financial conditions well beyond U.S. borders. It also covers the tensions around this hegemony and de-dollarization attempts.
The euro’s level acts on the area’s economy through two opposing channels: it changes the price of imports, hence imported inflation, and it changes the competitiveness of exports. A weak euro and a strong euro each carry a benefit and…
EUR/USD is the price of one euro expressed in dollars: when it reads 1.14, one euro trades for 1.14 dollars. It is a currency pair, meaning a ratio between two currencies, and it is this relative nature that governs how…
The rate differential between the ECB and the Fed is the first-order driver of EUR But it is its expected direction, read on the two-year segment, that imprints the move, not the level of the observed gap. This satellite isolates…
To first order, EUR/USD tracks the policy differential between the ECB and the Federal Reserve; to second order, a few euro-specific forces (the energy import bill, sovereign fragmentation, the current account) explain the gaps. Understanding the euro means decomposing its…
Gold is priced in dollars but most often held in euros: for a European holder, the return combines the metal’s move in dollars and the euro’s move against the dollar. Currency is a second layer, neither neutral nor always visible.…
The yen has weakened ≈25% against the dollar since 2022, fueling a carry trade that funds positions in US tech equities, high yield bonds and crypto. The Fed–BoJ differential above 4 points keeps the trade running, but a moderate BoJ hike could trigger violent unwinds reminiscent of 2008 and 2016.
Announcing «gold at an all-time high» assumes a currency and a measure. The record differs depending on whether one counts in dollars, euros or yen, and on whether or not one adjusts for inflation. TL;DR Gold's record depends on two…
Dollar stablecoins concentrate crypto liquidity and tighten the link with global macro. Analysis of risks, flows and implications for investors and corporates.
FX carry trade is back as rate differentials between EM and developed currencies have reopened since late 2023. Political volatility, less predictable central banks and nervous capital flows make the equilibrium far more fragile than 2016-2019.
Why dollar stablecoins have become the backbone of crypto liquidity and a discreet barometer of market regimes, capital flows and systemic risk.
