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Geopolitical Fragmentation

Geopolitics moves markets less through wars than through the trade routes, inventories and tariffs it redraws. Sanctions, semiconductor export controls, contested straits and grain corridors are splitting an integrated global economy into blocs, at a cost visible in inflation and industrial margins. US customs duties collected since 2015, the Red Sea, the Black Sea grain trade and the US-China chip rivalry are read through their transmission channels.

18pieces
6in-depth analyses

Where to start

Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.

01The basics Critical Minerals: How China’s Refining Grip Works Like a Currency Control China mines a minority of some critical minerals but refines most of them, and its export licences turn that refining share into an implicit price of access. AnalysisRead → 02The full mechanism Geopolitical Fragmentation and Financial Markets: A Structural Risk De-globalization, trade fragmentation, and resource control are reshaping financial markets. In-depth analysisRead → 03The evidence The WTI–Brent Spread (1987–2026): 39 Years of Divergences Show US Logistics, Not Geopolitics, Drove the Gap 39 years of WTI–Brent data: the spread never exceeded $13 outside 2011–2015, when US shale outpaced Oklahoma's pipelines. StudyRead →

Research and data

Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.

StudyUS customs duties collected and refunded, March 2015 to July 2026 StudyEconomic Geopolitics and Global Fragmentation In-depth analysisWheat as a Forward Indicator of Social Unrest and Geopolitical Risk Does wheat foreshadow social crises? 2008, 2011, 2022: how Black Sea export concentration sharpens the price-to-instability link. In-depth analysisRed Sea Tensions: Why Global Trade Remains Vulnerable

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The subjects that most often intersect with this topic in our analyses.

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This topic also exists in French.Fragmentation géopolitique, 16 pieces →